Elektrik Fiyat Tahmin Modeli: Turkiye Uygulaması (Turkish Edition)

In recent years, electricity markets are being transformed from a highly regulated government controlled system into deregulated local markets around the world and Turkey. The deregulation of the electricity market brings competition to the previously monopolistic market. Under deregulated electric market, electricity price is no longer set by the monopoly utility company rather it responds to the market and operating conditions. Under restructuring of electric power industry, different participants namely generation companies and consumers of electricity need to meet in a marketplace to decide on the electricity price. Under the market environment, electricity spot prices are highly volatile and difficult to model due to non- storability, strong seasonal fluctuations and price spikes. Because of those facts, forecasting of electricity price in this competitive power market has become very important for the market participants in order to support their planning and operations activities. In thesis, we introduce a model for electricity spot market prices that includes both seasonality and mean reversion of the electricity price. The model is based on one factor model that is superimposed on a mean reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model. The parameters of the model are calibrated with Turkish day-ahead electricity market daily price series using a least square approach. The analysis starts by examining the seasonal behavior of the spot electricity prices such as intra- daily, weekly and monthly then, tested by one-factor mean-reverting stochastic model. The simulated price series thus obtained very closely follows the statistical characteristics of the real price series.